Welcome new subscribers, and happy Friday.
By now, we all know what happened at 7:04 am on Monday morning.
But what happened in the minutes, even hours before that?…
In this week’s Digest, we cover an indication that something big was coming EVEN BEFORE traders placed massive oil and stock futures bets… Long BEFORE Trump’s now infamous Truth Social post.
And we show you why Gold is now starting to trade like a retail altcoin.
So, let’s get into it.
Reminder: Join us HERE in our Discord channel every morning before the market opens.
I Watched It Unfold Live…
But What Happened BEFORE 7:04 am?
Was it insider trading?
Did someone already know that Trump was about to post on Truth Social that his threats towards Iran, his 48 hour “ultimatum” from Friday… was about to be called off?
That stocks would likely skyrocket, and oil likely plummet because of it?
Maybe.
We have no idea at this point.
Surely regulators are looking into it, right?
Anyhow…
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We do know that between 6:49 and 6:51 am $760 million in oil futures contracts and $2 billion in S&P 500 futures contracts changed hands.
Then, 7:04 am happened. Trump’s post happened.
And over the next few minutes, between $40 and $50 million may have been made off those contracts.
“Not bad for 15 minutes of work,” said commodities trader, Mike Khouw.
I, Luke Hodgens, watched it unfold live.
See, every Monday through Thursday I write the Morning Money Brief. A quick pre-market rundown of the most important things to watch for the day’s trading.
If you read it, I hope you find it useful.
This Monday, as I was compiling my data for the Brief, getting ready to write about a tanking stock market and rising oil prices…
I noticed stock futures had begun to skyrocket. Oil futures began to plummet.
And, at the time, I could find no good reason as to why.
Of course, I wish I was paying closer attention. Because the “good” reason was right in front of me. Staring me in the face.
And no, it wasn’t a Truth Social post.
More on this in just a second…
First, after a quick re-write of the Brief by 7:20 am, including what little I knew about the Trump post at the time, and with newsletter delivery on its way…
I finally had more time to dig into the pandemonium I witnessed just a few minutes earlier.
And what I found was far more curious than you’d expect.
Yes, I learned the of entire contents of the Trump post… We would not be blowing up Iranian power plants… At least not yet…
And yes, I learned of the big futures bets around 6:50 am.
But it’s what was right in front of me, even before I hit my desk, that made me wish I was paying closer attention.
Because in the hours, even minutes leading up to Trump’s post, while not much actually happened in the futures market…
All the signs that something big was coming were there. Plain as day.
Here’s what I mean, have a look:
This is a chart of Monday’s S&P 500 E-mini futures. It’s set to a 30-minute tick.
As you can see, the 7 am-to-7:30 am tick showed strong institutional buying. That’s also the tick-frame where Trump posted.
But, hours earlier, you can see that “buy” signal. It’s circled in green.
Of course, I wasn’t awake when that buy signal flashed at 3 am eastern…
But I was awake and writing the Brief before the big trades came in, and before Trump posted…
All while that “buy” signal was just sitting there, staring back at me.
I had plenty of time to take advantage of it. But dummy me, I didn’t.
Anyhow, forget the woe is me stuff…
Here’s where it gets really interesting.
Like I said above, even with the big bets, not much actually happened to the S&P 500 E mini futures until after Trump posted.
So, let’s get granular.
This is the S&P 500 E-mini futures tuned in to a 1-minute tick. Which happens to cover the exact timeframe from just before the big futures trades came in, through the Trump post, and into an All-in-One “sell” signal a few minutes after.
At 6:49 am, the All-in-One triggered a “buy.”
One minute later, at 6:50 am, the Institutional Algo triggered a “buy.”
Both as those big futures trades were made.
Even so, E mini futures remained relatively flat for about 15 minutes. Look at the chart, you can see.
Then, the Trump post hit, and futures absolutely ripped!
Of course, I wish I had my charts tuned to the 1-minute tick with my All-in-One and Institutional Algo in place.
But I didn’t. I missed that one too.
However, someone, or multiple someone’s didn’t miss their opportunity.
Like we said earlier, $760 million in oil futures contracts and $2 billion in S&P 500 futures contracts changed hands before Trump’s post.
And an estimated $40-$50 million may have been made in about 15 minutes.
But does this mean “insider trading”?
Does it mean Trump, or one of his confidants leaked what would be in the post, prior to the posting?
No, not necessarily.
In fact, in yesterday’s New York Post – Charlie Gasparino column, after citing several traders who believe somebody knew something….
Said, “It’s also certainly possible… that legal market intelligence software might be behind the move as opposed to insider knowledge of the tweet.”
SentimenTracker?
Maybe.
The one thing we know for sure is this: Someone made an absolute killing on Monday morning, and technology like SentimenTracker may have been involved.
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Gold Is Starting to Trade Like a Retail Altcoin
–From Tuesday’s issue of Altcoin Investing Picks–
One of the more interesting cross-market signals right now is that gold sentiment is beginning to look a lot like crypto sentiment.
After falling roughly 22% from its all-time high, gold holders on Reddit are asking the same questions crypto traders ask after a major drawdown…
Isn’t this supposed to be a safe haven? Why is it moving like a risk asset?
That shift matters.
For years, gold was seen as a slow-moving macro hedge dominated by institutions. But that appears to be changing.
Since Q2 2025, retail investors have reportedly poured around $70 billion into gold ETFs, roughly 3x the pace seen six months earlier, while institutions sold about $1 billion over the same period.
In other words, gold is no longer being driven purely by slow capital and macro allocators. It is increasingly being shaped by narrative-driven retail flows.
We’ve seen this movie before in crypto.
When an asset becomes heavily owned by retail, price action starts to change. It gets more emotional, more reactive, and more sensitive to positioning.
That’s how you end up with a “safe haven” asset suddenly trading with the kind of volatility people normally associate with BTC or high-beta altcoins.
The same dynamic may be showing up in equities too.
Retail investors still account for a major share of daily US stock volume, and they continue to buy dips while institutions reduce exposure. If that gap widens, stocks could face the same kind of sentiment-driven instability.
The signal:
Crypto may still be the best real-time dashboard for retail psychology. If gold and equities are now being pulled around by the same fast-money crowd, then BTC looks less like the outlier… and more like the leading indicator.
That is bullish for Bitcoin’s digital gold narrative.
If you’re interested in digital asset analysis, you should certainly be reading Altcoin Investing Picks.
The newsletter is complimentary to all Alpha Edge Digest readers, and you can sign up to it HERE.
Enjoy your weekend,
Luke Hodgens
Director of Publications
Alpha Edge Media