Welcome new subscribers, and happy Friday.
First it was Venezuela. Now it’s Iran…
Up next, Cuba?
In this week’s Digest we offer a short investment guide for those looking ahead to a post-communist Cuba.
We cover a small-cap stock that popped the day after our editor at The Russell Report covered it…
And we have a look at an IPO…
PayPay, Japan’s mobile payments giant.
So, let’s get into it.
Reminder: Join us HERE in our Discord channel every morning before the market opens.
Preparing a Portfolio for Peace…
And the Fall of Caribbean Communism
History has a habit of turning revolutions into investment opportunities.
No matter how long it takes.
It was 67 years ago, when Fidel Castro and his guerrilla army overthrew Fulgencio Batista… promising a new, better future for Cuba.
A wondrous future of social equality…
Economic independence…
And an end to corruption and dictatorship.
Of course, the exact opposite happened.
Castro’s “utopian” system quickly fell into dystopia.
Political opponents were arbitrarily arrested and jailed, forced labor camps were opened for “undesirables”…
Dissent was suppressed by force, and although sources vary, as many as 49,000 people were executed…
And over 1.5 million Cubans fled to America.
Now…
Without Soviet subsidies in the 1960s through the 1980s and Venezuelan support since 2000, the Cuban experiment would have failed decades ago.
But…
Maduro just happened. Venezuela is no longer financially supporting Cuba…
And the nation is on the verge of the inevitable.
Which raises a fascinating question for investors.
If Cuba eventually turns capitalist, which stocks could benefit the most?
Well, in last week’s Friday Digest, we covered a number of stocks we believe will pop once the Iran conflict is over, and oil prices plummet. Many of which fit into this week’s theme as well.
You can read our Iran analysis, HERE.
But today we’re going to look at the situation a little differently, avoiding the obvious plays like cruise lines, tourism companies, rum producers, or cigar brands.
And instead, we’ll quickly look at seven publicly traded companies that were operating in Cuba before La Revolución…
Companies that may be open for business if/when the nation returns to capitalism.
If that shift happens, investors won’t just see new hotels and cruise ships.
They’ll see an entire economy rebuilt from the ground up.
Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO)
What they did before Castro…
Operated bottling and distribution in Cuba before the revolution.
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In a capitalist Cuba thesis, consumer staples tend to return quickly when closed economies open. With 11 million potential customers and massive tourism flows, Coca-Cola could rapidly re-establish bottling and distribution networks.
Colgate-Palmolive (NYSE: CL)
What they did before Castro…
Sold toothpaste and personal care products widely in Cuba.
As incomes rise in emerging markets, demand for basic consumer goods explodes. Colgate-Palmolive has historically captured dominant market share in newly opened economies.
Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG)
What they did before Castro…
Distributed household staples before nationalization.
If Cuba opens, millions of consumers will suddenly gain access to modern retail products. Companies selling soap, detergent, and hygiene products typically see the fastest adoption in emerging markets.
AT&T (NYSE: T)
What they did before Castro…
Historically controlled much of Cuba’s telephone infrastructure.
Since Cuba’s telecom infrastructure is decades behind global standards, a market opening would likely trigger billions in spending on broadband, mobile networks, and fiber.
Citigroup (NYSE: C)
What they did before Castro…
Operated banking services in Havana before the revolution.
If Cuba integrates with global markets, banks will move quickly into credit cards, corporate lending, remittances, and trade finance.
ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM)
What they did before Castro…
Owned refining and energy assets that were later nationalized.
Cuba imports most of its fuel today. An open economy could attract oil majors to develop offshore reserves (estimated at between 4 and 9 billion barrels, with 13+ trillion cubic feet of natural gas) and modernize refining capacity.
General Electric (NYSE: GE)
What they did before Castro…
Supplied industrial equipment and power infrastructure.
In a post-communist Cuba, power plants, rail systems, medical equipment, and aviation infrastructure would require large-scale industrial upgrades.
Now…
We have no idea when, or even if the Cuban government will capitulate and open itself up to capitalism…
But if/when that day comes, investors who were paying attention early may benefit the most.
From the March 5th issue of The Russell Report
Our Holdings Match Our Commitments:
Adding a Military Name to go with Astronics Corp.
Up 120% Since Last Time We Wrote It Up
By The Russell Report, 3/5/26
During the late 1930’s while Joe Kennedy was ambassador to England, his college aged son, John F. Kennedy used his father’s assignment as a staging area to explore Europe on the eve of World War 2.
Young JFK would travel from country to country and use his father’s connections to meet with and interview a number of Western Europe’s leaders.
What he discovered first-hand on those trips would change the course of history…
It would create an armaments industry in this country of unimaginable proportions.
It would shape America’s foreign policy stance right up to the present moment.
He wrote his discovery into his senior thesis at Harvard. Which his father then paid to have published.
The book was titled, “While England Slept”.
The core idea is this: Always make sure your armaments match your commitments. Which England failed to do in the years after World War I…
Making World War II possible.
As for the investing lesson in this?
Always make sure you consider your stock holdings match your country’s commitments… whether you agree with those commitments or not.
Now…
With the recent strike on Iran reminding us of one of our country’s major commitments…
And to make sure no one can accuse your friends and committed writers here at The Russell Report of being asleep at the wheel…
Let’s add to the only military name we’ve directed your attention to in these pages.
In our very first issue we directed you to a small military contractor called Astronics Corp (ATRO: Nasdaq).
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On the day we wrote it up, shares changed hands for $36 a share. As of market close yesterday, they were trading for just under $80.
Congratulations if you bought ATRO when we suggested it. We’re glad to see you’re taking our analysis seriously.
So, now it’s time to fire another shot.
And let’s use a tried-and-true theme to zero in on our target…
Let’s take a look at Redcat Holdings (RCAT: Nasdaq)
It’s a “picks and shovels” play (which we love) in the drone industry, supplying components and infrastructure for drone manufacturers.
The company serves the U.S. Department of Defense, NATO, and allied forces with products designed for intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance.
Its key products are: “Black Widow”, a small, rucksack-portable drone for short-range reconnaissance…
“Edge 130”, a military-grade tri-copter for mapping and surveillance with vertical takeoff capabilities…
And “Blue Ops”, which focuses on uncrewed surface vessels for naval operations.
Besides incredible spy tech names for its products, Red Cat’s critical differentiator involves providing secure domestic drone technology, which could be a golden ticket as U.S. procurement shifts away from foreign-made drone hardware.
Redcat has a market cap of just under $1.8 billion. Making it just about the same size Astronics was when we wrote it up last summer.
Redcat also has considerable momentum, like Astronics did. Year to date, Redcat shares are up close to 65%. And over the last 12 months, they’re up over 175%.
Now, if you’re inclined to swing-trade this stock (or any small-caps for that matter)…
And by the looks of the Redcat chart, it’s a fantastic candidate…
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As always, be sure to do your homework, make sure your aim is true and your heart rate is low, then when you’re good and ready, with a measured squeeze… fire away!
To subscribe to The Russell Report, simply visit HERE, it’s free!
From IPO Stream – Free Edition, Monday March 9
PayPay Corporation (PAYP)
Japan’s Mobile Payments Giant Eyes Nasdaq Debut in $1B+ IPO
What is PayPay?
PayPay Corporation is Japan’s dominant QR-code mobile payments platform, launched in October 2018 as a joint venture between SoftBank Group and Yahoo Japan (now LY Corporation).
In less than eight years, PayPay has grown into the country’s most widely used digital wallet, boasting roughly 72 million registered users, equivalent to approximately 75% of all smartphone users in Japan.
The company began with a simple premise: persuade Japan’s notoriously cash-heavy consumers to pay with their phones.
That mission succeeded dramatically. PayPay now processes an estimated two-thirds of all QR-code transactions in Japan and roughly one-fifth of all non-cash transactions nationwide.
In fiscal year 2024 alone, the platform handled 7.8 billion payments worth approximately 12.5 trillion yen, equivalent to roughly $85 billion USD.
Beyond payments, PayPay has evolved into what the company describes as a next-generation payments ecosystem, offering banking deposits, consumer credit, investment brokerage, and insurance services, all from within a single app.
As of late 2025, the platform had approximately 9.7 million bank accounts and 1.54 million brokerage accounts.
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1-Year Price Probability Analysis: Bull, base, flat, and bear scenarios with probability estimates, price targets, and a probability-weighted 12-month expected value.
Comparable Company Valuation: See how PAYP stacks up against Block, PayPal, Grab, and KakaoPay on FCF yield and price-to-FCF multiples.
Deep Risk Analysis: Full breakdown of SoftBank secondary risk, JPY/USD exposure, AI disruption threats, and crypto regulatory risk.
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The IPO – What You Need to Know
OFFERING DETAILS
PayPay launched its roadshow on March 2, 2026, initially with some delay due to global market volatility following geopolitical events.
The deal is led by a top-tier underwriting syndicate including Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, Mizuho Securities, and Morgan Stanley as joint bookrunners, with Citigroup, Jefferies, BofA Securities, and Societe Generale also participating.
Notably, 8,653,079 ADSs will also be sold in a simultaneous public offering in Japan at the same per-ADS price, demonstrating the breadth of interest in the deal.
The Bull Case and Bear Case
Market Context
If priced at the top of the range, PayPay’s IPO would be among the largest U.S. listings by a Japanese company in recent history.
It arrives at a time when the fintech sector has been under pressure (most recent fintech IPOs have traded below their offer prices)…
Which may explain why PayPay has structured the deal conservatively, with a low float of approximately 8.2% of shares outstanding and strong cornerstone investor participation covering roughly 21.6% of the offering.
SoftBank, which plans to retain PayPay as a consolidated subsidiary after the IPO, views the listing as a capital-markets milestone rather than an exit.
The proceeds from PayPay’s primary shares will fund general corporate purposes including working capital, marketing, product development, and potential acquisitions.
WANT THE FULL PICTURE?
IPO Stream Premium subscribers get everything in this briefing, plus the deeper analysis that serious investors need before placing a single order:
IPO Grade: A letter grade with an 8-category scorecard covering business quality, competitive moat, valuation, deal structure, and more.
IPO-Day Limit Order Strategy: Specific price targets for aggressive, moderate, and conservative investors, with position sizing guidance.
1-Year Price Probability Analysis: Bull, base, flat, and bear scenarios with probability estimates, price targets, and a probability-weighted 12-month expected value.
Comparable Company Valuation: See how PAYP stacks up against Block, PayPal, Grab, and KakaoPay on FCF yield and price-to-FCF multiples.
Deep Risk Analysis: Full breakdown of SoftBank secondary risk, JPY/USD exposure, AI disruption threats, and crypto regulatory risk.
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We hope you enjoyed IPO Stream’s free version and found it to be informative. You can subscribe HERE.
While the free version is packed with great information on IPOs, the premium version of the newsletter goes much deeper, offers grades (A through F) on all the IPOs it covers, gives 1-year success probabilities and more.
Enjoy your weekend,
Luke Hodgens
Director of Publications
Alpha Edge Media