Welcome new subscribers, and happy Friday.
In this week’s Digest, we custom build you an entire basket of stocks you should consider owning the moment the Iran conflict ends…
Better, we show you a way to get in them, strategically…
At potentially better prices, before the conflict ends…
And before these stocks are positioned for liftoff.
So let’s get into it, shall we?
Reminder: Join us HERE in our Discord channel every morning before the market opens.
What Happens AFTER Iran is Over?
We’re not warmongers…
Nor are we peaceniks.
Somewhere in between? Maybe. Probably.
Are we opportunists? Yes.
Definitely.
You see, regardless of where you stand, investors are watching the Iran conflict the way traders watch the countdown clock to the monthly jobs report… eyeballs glued.
What will happen next?
Good, bad, ugly?
The truth is, we don’t know. Nobody does.
But what we DO know can lead to opportunity. Big opportunity.
Here’s what we DO know…
Oil spiked, volatility surged, and entire sectors suddenly found themselves on the wrong side of the trade.
(Remember this oil chart. The green circled area will be explained momentarily)
Airlines, cruise operators, and travel companies were among the first corporate casualties as fuel costs jumped and investors priced in the worst.
Whether those companies hedge fuel prices or not… they’ve taken a beating.
But here’s something else we know…
Conflicts eventually end.
And when they do, the un-wind can be just as powerful as the spike.
See, once geopolitical tensions, especially those in the Middle East, begin to ease, oil prices often plummet.
And when that happens, fuel-heavy industries can move from margin compression to margin expansion surprisingly quickly.
Of course, companies with fuel hedges may see the margin benefit emerge more gradually as those contracts roll off.
But…
Nevertheless, the real opportunity may not be in the crisis itself… but in what happens after the tension fades and energy prices start to normalize.
So, in this week’s Friday Digest, we’ll cover nine fuel-heavy stocks that could potentially benefit greatly, the moment the Iran conflict ends.
Plus, we have 5 “bonus” stocks that could actually outperform all nine fuel-heavy stocks we’re about to cover.
Now, keep this in mind…
Today’s “basket of nine” only contains companies that are already in relatively good financial condition.
Because we have no idea how long the Iran crisis will last, fundamentals matter.
With that said, let’s get to it.
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In order of relative financial strength…
Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL).
Profitability: Among the highest in the industry.
Free cash flow: around $3.5 – $4B annual range as of late.
Why it’s financially strong: Highest profit efficiency among major U.S. airlines with…
- Strong premium cabin and corporate travel demand
- Large loyalty program (SkyMiles + American Express partnership)
United Airlines (NASDAQ: UAL).
Net income: Recently, over $1B quarterly.
Free Cash Flow: About $3.0 – 3.5 billion.
Why it’s relatively strong: High-margin long-haul routes (Europe & Asia) with…
- Growing premium and loyalty revenue
- Improving balance sheet since pandemic
Southwest Airlines (NYSE: LUV).
2025 net income: around $441 million.
Free Cash Flow: About $1.5 – $2.0 billion.
Why it’s relatively strong: Historically the most operationally efficient airline with…
- Low-cost model
- Recently adding fees, assigned seating, and premium options to boost margins
Alaska Air Group (NYSE: ALK)
2025 net income: Around $100 million.
Free cash flow: Roughly $800 million.
Why it’s relatively strong: Historically profitable, solid margins with…
- Strong West Coast market share
- Smaller but disciplined airline
- Integration of Hawaiian Airlines (if completed) could expand routes
American Airlines (NASDAQ: AAL). The weakest of the group.
2025 Net income: around $111 million.
Generated $2.5B free cash flow in first half 2025.
But the company has problems. Problems like…
- A heavy total debt load, about $36.5 billion at the end of 2025
- Much lower profitability per dollar of revenue vs Delta/United
- FCF exists but balance sheet risk is higher
Now let’s look at cruise lines…
Again, in order of relative financial strength.
Royal Caribbean Group (NYSE: RCL)
Net income: around $3.8 – $4 billion.
Free cash flow: Around $2 billion.
Why it’s relatively strong: Arguably the best financial performer in the industry right now with…
- Premium ships command higher ticket prices
- Strong onboard spending and pricing power
- Multiple brands: Royal Caribbean, Celebrity Cruises, Silversea
Carnival Corporation (NYSE: CCL)
Net income: Around $2.8 billion GAAP.
Free Cash Flow: Around $2 Billion.
Why it’s relatively strong: It’s the largest cruise company globally, producing about 36% of industry revenue. With…
- Record revenues and profits in 2025
- Recently reinstated dividend after pandemic suspension
Viking Holdings (NYSE: VIK).
Net Income: Around $620 million.
Free Cash Flow: Around $700 million.
Why it’s relatively strong: revenue up 28% and earnings up 49% YoY with…
- Premium demographic (wealthier retirees)
- High booking visibility — 86% of 2026 capacity already sold
And the financially weakest of the bunch…
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NYSE: NCLH)
Net income: Around $660 million.
Free Cash Flow: Around $900 million.
Why it’s somewhat strong: Smaller fleet but focuses on premium and luxury cruising with…
- Record revenues in recent quarters
However, NCLH is more volatile financially than RCL or CCL.
Now…
You may be thinking, “this is great, but are there any stocks that have historically outperformed airlines and cruise lines after oil drops?”
Good question…
The answer is yes.
Stocks in logistics and travel (outside commercial airlines and cruise lines).
They’re our 5 “bonus” stocks.
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They are…
Uber Technologies (NYSE: UBER). This ride-sharing platform benefits when gasoline prices fall, increasing driver supply and boosting ride demand.
FedEx (NYSE: FDX). A global logistics giant whose margins often expand when jet fuel and diesel costs decline.
United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS). The package delivery leader with large fuel expenses that typically improves profitability when oil prices drop.
Booking Holdings (NASDAQ: BKNG). A major online travel platform that tends to see stronger bookings when lower fuel prices make travel cheaper.
Expedia Group (NASDAQ: EXPE). Another online travel agency that often benefits from increased flight and hotel demand when energy costs fall.
So…
There we have it. An entire basket of stocks that could/will benefit when the Iran conflict ends…
And oil prices tumble.
But…
Unfortunately, we have no idea when the conflict will end.
We can, however, spot good entry and exit points that could allow you to get in on the cheap…
Then sell the moment the big spikes happen, after it’s announced the conflict is resolved.
“How,” you say?
Well, if you’re a SentimenTracker Founder’s Club Member, you may recognize that oil chart above.
Here it is again…
This is crude oil futures, a few days before the beginning of the conflict, through last weekend, and up to yesterday morning.
The green circled area?
That’s where the Institutional Algo and All-in-One indicator said “buy”…
Two days before the conflict began.
Before oil futures skyrocketed.
So…
My suggestion for our basket of stocks, if you’re a SentimenTracker Founder’s Club member, is…
Take each ticker, then overlay the Institutional Algo and the All-in-One indicator on your chart.
Set your “ticks” to 2 or 4 hours (the oil chart above is set at 2 hours)…
Also check the 30-minute.
If both indicators show the “buy” signals on the same day…
This may very well mark a great entry point.
But always pay attention. Any escalation in the conflict can change things quickly.
This is precisely why you must also keep an eye on the All-in-One for a sell signal.
Always.
Now, speaking of SentimenTracker…
Here’s a screenshot from a new SentimenTracker Founder’s Club member…
No, it’s not from Edison, but from “lynlyn”.
Congratulations, lynlyn…
What a great day.
Keep on winning!
If you haven’t joined The SentimenTracker Founder’s Club yet, you can get access here -> SentimenTracker Founder’s Club
Enjoy your weekend,
Luke Hodgens
Director of Publications
Alpha Edge Media